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Restricted elevational ranges are common across tropical montane species, but the mechanisms generating and maintaining these patterns remain poorly resolved. A long-standing hypothesis is that specialized thermal physiology explains these distributions. However, biotic factors such as habitat and interspecific competition have also been proposed to limit tropical species’ elevational ranges. We combined point-level abundances, respirometry-based measurements of metabolic rate, habitat surveys and playback experiments to simultaneously test these three hypotheses for four species of Central American cloud forest songbirds. Contrary to the physiological hypothesis, we found no evidence that thermoregulatory costs constrain species distributions. Instead, thermal conditions across each species’ elevational range remained well within sustainable limits, staying ≤65% of hypothesized thresholds for tropical birds, even at the highest elevations. By contrast, we found some support for a combined role of habitat and competition in shaping elevational ranges. In one related species pair, the dominant lower-elevation species appears restricted by microhabitat, while the higher-elevation species is likely prevented from expanding downslope by the presence of this congener. Taken together, we conclude that thermoregulatory costs are an inadequate explanation for elevational range limits of tropical birds at our site and suggest that biotic factors can be key in shaping these distributions. We provide a Spanish translation of the Abstract in the supplementary materials. 

Globally, many species’ distributions are shifting in response to contemporary climate change. However, the direction and rate of shifts remain difficult to predict, impeding managers’ abilities to optimize resource allocation. Here, we developed a new approach for forecasting species range‐limit shifts that requires only abundance data along environmental (for example, elevational) gradients. We posited that the distribution of species’ abundances could offer insights into the potential for future range‐limit shifts. We then tested this prediction using data from several transect studies that compared historical and contemporary distributions. Consistent with our prediction, we found that strong asymmetry in abundance distributions (that is, “leaning” distributions) indeed preceded species’ lower‐limit range shifts. Accordingly, surveying abundances along environmental gradients may represent a promising, cost‐effective method for forecasting local shifts. Ideally, this approach will be incorporated by practitioners into species‐specific management planning and will inform on‐the‐ground conservation efforts. 

Global warming is forcing many species to change where they live. As temperatures rise, some places will become too hot for the plants and animals that live there now. Species will migrate out of these hot areas and into other areas that used to be too cold for them. In some cases, species will not be able to move fast enough to escape rising temperatures, or there will not be enough places with suitable climates left for them to live in—increasing the risk that these species will become extinct. As global warming forces many plant and animal species to move around, or causes them to become extinct from certain areas, the types of species that we find around us will change, which will affect our lives. 

Rapid species turnover in tropical mountains has fascinated biologists for centuries. A popular explanation for this heightened beta diversity is that climatic stability at low latitudes promotes the evolution of narrow thermal tolerance ranges, leading to local adaptation, evolutionary divergence and parapatric speciation along elevational gradients. However, an emerging consensus from research spanning phylogenetics, biogeography and behavioural ecology is that this process rarely, if ever, occurs. Instead, closely related species typically occupy a similar elevational niche, while species with divergent elevational niches tend to be more distantly related. These results suggest populations have responded to past environmental change not by adapting and diverging in place, but instead by shifting their distributions to tightly track climate over time. We argue that tropical species are likely to respond similarly to ongoing and future climate warming, an inference supported by evidence from recent range shifts. In the absence of widespread in situ adaptation to new climate regimes by tropical taxa, conservation planning should prioritize protecting large swaths of habitat to facilitate movement.